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Does Sinha know why our economy is on the verge of collapse?
He does not know because he is not in control!

Every year, the rupee has been coming down by 10 per cent, and is now worth no more than just two cents. You can't buy anything for two cents in the United States, not even a peanut. And this worthless rupee is our currency. Our currency has been destroyed by free-market reforms, though there are people in the finance ministry who argue that devaluation is a good thing for the economy because it stimulates exports. All these men are from the World Bank or IMF and receive pensions from these agencies.

A free market is exactly what it says it is. It is a market in which you buy and sell anything you fancy or require without anybody questioning you. You buy and sell capital (through the stock market), you buy and sell dollars (through the exchange market), you buy and sell rupees (through the money market), you buy and sell goods (through imports and exports and, of course, if you are a prime minister, you buy and sell MPs.

This is what Narasimha Rao, the great free-market reformer, did, and when he did it, it is unlikely that he ever thought that one day he would be hauled before the court and given a stiff sentence. If you can have free-market economic reforms why not free-market political reforms? In fact, that is precisely what he was trying to do, but he was caught, because politics is different from economics and the sane laws do not apply there.

On the day Rao was held guilty, the free markets everywhere, which he and his sidekick, Manmohan Singh, had done so much to create, collapsed. The stock market collapsed in Mumbai and the sensex went down below the 4000 mark for the first time in twelve months.

The rupee collapsed by nearly 20 paise and so did government bonds. And all this, while one prime minister was getting ready to be sentenced, while another prime minister was getting ready for his operation!

On the very same day, an international rating agency, Standard & Poor's, downgraded India's rating from positive to stable, which sounds harmless enough until you realise that even a poor economy can be stable without being positive. And what provoked the rating agency to do so? It said that the reforms were not going fast enough, the fiscal situation was getting worse, and foreign reserves were plummeting.

The agency is not interested in anything except the foreign outlook. That is because its main job is to act as a watchdog for foreign investors.

The government is helpless and doesn't even know what is happening. Two weeks before the markets collapsed the finance minister said that the hike in oil prices was not a matter for concern and would not affect the economy. He can say that again. Everything affects the Indian market, because the Indian market is not Indian anymore.

Any Tom, Dick and Harry in New York or London can bring down the Sensex by just withdrawing from the market, as the foreign financial institutions did last week. A big bank in Frankfurt can bring down the rupee by selling rupees. And so on.

FIIs don't love India, or for that matter any country!

Foreign funds have been withdrawing from India because they can make more money outside.They have no love for India or for that matter any other country. They just love their bank accounts and if they can bring the stock market down and create chaos in the market, they could not care less. This is precisely what a free market economy is, and if we do not know it, it is time we did.

These people simply do not want a strong Indian economy or a strong Indian nation.These are the very same people who destroyed Soviet Russia and are bent on Destroying China. They destabilised Russia in the name of free market reforms, and they are doing the same here.

They now control two basic things: one, capital, and two, money. The stock market is entirely dependent on their movements. If they want, they can bring down the Sensex to 1000, which is what it was before our great reformers, Rao and Singh, started their reforms.It is foreign financial institutions which now control the market, not Tatas or Ambanis, certainly not you and me. Tatas and Ambanis are always careful to be on the right side of these foreign institutions because their fate depends on them.

Now, take the rupee. The rupee depends on the current account deficit, which is the difference between what we export (including services) and what we import. The difference is made up through foreign capital funds. If there are no funds coming in, the deficit goes up and the rupee comes down.

Every year, the rupee has been coming down by 10 per cent, and is now worth no more than just two cents. You can't buy anything for two cents in the United States, not even a peanut. And this worthless rupee is our currency. Our currency has been destroyed by free-market reforms, though there are people in the finance ministry who argue that devaluation is a good thing for the economy because it stimulates exports. All these men are from the World Bank or IMF and receive pensions from these agencies.

Now take our foreign trade. World foreign trade has been brought under WTO, a western controlled organisation in which poor nations have little say. WTO is forcing us to close down small industries by forcing the government to remove all subsidies.

The surprising thing is that our own babus are helping the WTO in this.It was Abid Hussain, a former babu in the commerce ministry who recommended the breaking up of small industries. And we all think that is the only way to develop industries in India - by killing our own existing industries!

Why is there a fall in growth rates?

Let me now come to the downgrading of growth rates by government and other agencies. GDP growth this year is going to be less than 6 per cent, against the original estimate of 7 per cent.

Industrial growth rate will be less than 6 per cent, against as high as 12 per cent four years ago. It is the steep drop in industrial growth, together with an equally steep drop in agriculture, that is responsible for the recession in the economy.

But why is there a drop in industrial growth? Because of globalisation, which means because of WTO, a foreign agency. Small and medium industries in India are being killed one by one, mainly because of cheap imports. Pencil batteries are being sold in India for 2 rupees while locally made batteries are priced at 7 rupees. And where do these cheap batteries come from? They come from China, which is still not a member of WTO. Once China becomes a member of WTO, our small industries will really be in trouble.

Does the FM know what is happening?

It is not surprising that the finance minister does not know why the economy is on the verge of collapse. He doesn't know because he is not in control. He is not in control of the stock market which means capital flows, he is not in control of the rupee because the value of the rupee is decided by foreign investors, he is not in control of foreign trade, because it is WTO, not he, who controls it.

All he can do is keep repeating that the economy is in good health and neither the hike in oil prices nor the collapse of the stock market will affect it. What else can he do?

If this is what happened after ten years of reforms I shudder at what might happen after 20 years. I am told that we are about to become a superpower in information technology and shall make so much money that we do not have to worry about anything else, not such small things like wheat or rice or milk.

The software companies will take care of it. Incidentally, on the very day the stock market collapsed and the rupee went belly-up, two software companies declared record sales and profits. But the market took no notice, and dismissed them as of no importance. Can anyone say that the markets do not know what they are doing?

 

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Last modified:
July 13, 2004